Does "No One Loses" Under the New CARE Pension Formula?
After the Cabinet approved the CARE formula on 14 July 2026, several Thai news outlets ran headlines claiming "no one loses." But a close reading of the full Cabinet resolution reveals conditions the headlines left out — and the protection is far from the full 100% many readers may have assumed.
The Facts — Who Is Actually Protected
Reading the full Cabinet resolution reveals the "no reduction" guarantee applies to exactly two groups:
- Those already receiving a pension before the new formula takes effect — protected in full (a standard practice, not a special CARE-specific concession)
- Those who begin receiving a pension during the "first 5 transition years" (2025-2030) — this group receives "compensation for the difference" if the old formula would have given more, but this is not full 100% protection throughout all 5 years
Insured workers retiring from 2031 onward are not covered by this promise at all — the full CARE formula applies, with no compensation whatsoever if the result is lower than the old formula.
Even Within the "5-Year Protection" Window — It's Not Full Protection
This is where the "no one loses" headline is most misleading. The transitional compensation is not 100% for all 5 years — it is a declining ratio between the old formula and CARE:
| Retirement Year (CE) | Old Formula : CARE Ratio | What This Means |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-2026 | 100% : 0% | Fully protected, entirely old formula |
| 2027 | 80% : 20% | CARE already has a partial effect |
| 2028 ⚠️ | 60% : 40% | Nearly half calculated under CARE |
| 2029 | 40% : 60% | CARE now weighs more than the old formula |
| 2030 | 20% : 80% | Nearly full CARE |
| 2031 onward | 0% : 100% | Full CARE, no compensation |
Sources: Thai PBS Policy Watch, Hfocus, Thai Rath
An insured worker retiring in 2028 — still technically within the "5-year relief period" cited in the claim — already has 40% of their pension calculated under CARE. If CARE produces a lower result for their specific case, real impact begins that year — not 2031, as many might assume from the "no one loses" headline.
Why "Misleading," Not "False"
The underlying figures in the news reports are not factually wrong — the Cabinet resolution genuinely specifies these conditions. The issue is that summarising it as an unconditional headline, "no one loses," may lead casual readers who don't dig into the full details to assume they are entirely safe — when in reality, the outcome depends heavily on the year of retirement and an individual's wage growth pattern over their career.
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